After the uncomfortable 4th quarter last year (when stocks declined 14%), we wrote about a few items keeping our attention. Besides our indicators (which were negative at the time), the trade war with China and the Fed tightening monetary policy were top of mind. Here we are three months later and the negative trajectory of each item has reversed course sending stocks 13% higher. This increase basically recoups most of the previous quarter’s decline. If we were on a boat experiencing these ups and downs, we’d all be seasick!
Last month we passed the 10 year anniversary of the Financial Crisis […]
From the TPG Investment Committee:
The fourth quarter has been ugly for stocks around the world. After a wonderful third quarter, U.S. stocks (as represented by the S&P 500) have declined around 15% from the high in October. As unsettling as that may sound, the magnitude of this selloff isn’t out of the ordinary for typical intra-year declines:
The chart above shows how the size of any given drop in a year (red dot) doesn’t often predict how the full year will turn out (gray bar). While a drop near the end of the year […]
During the most recent quarter, U.S. Stocks (as represented by the S&P 500) have hit another all-time high. After a decade of above average stock returns and fears of the last recession a distant memory, it’s hard not to wonder if we should invest in anything other than stocks. After all, as you can see below, they’ve done phenomenally well over the last 10 years, especially compared to Cash and U.S. Bonds:
To put this into perspective, $1,000,000 in stocks would have grown to $3,096,220 while bonds […]
As the U.S. economy enters its 10th year of expansion, many pundits are starting to ask when the party will be over. Some even believe the next downturn in the economy is imminent. While none of us have that crystal ball, it’s worth recalling what a recession actually looks like.
According to Ronald Reagan during the 1980 presidential campaign, “Recession is when your neighbor loses his job. Depression is when you lose yours. And recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses his”. Less politically, a common definition for a recession is two consecutive quarters of declining […]
The excitement over Bitcoin is hard to miss. Countless articles in the popular press have brought the new investment device to the forefront, and the stories of astronomical returns over the past year (week!?!) have enticed untold thousands to spend their hard-earned money on the mysterious electronic “coin.” As exciting as that is, we wonder how closely Bitcoin matches the expectations of an actual currency.
For those of you who ever had to take an Econ 101 class, you may recall that true money serves three functions: 1) it is a store of value […]